The pandemic-induced decline in global advertising spend during 2020 has proved less severe than anticipated. While 2020 remains the weakest performing year since the global financial crisis, the decline in growth during 2020 has improved since the January 2021 forecast from -8.8% to -7.2%.

The overall ad market outlook for 2021 is a recovery of 10.4% growth and a spend of US$634 billion, which represents an improvement of 4.6 percentage points versus January’s 2021 prediction. The ad market is forecast to fully recover in 2021, exceeding pre-pandemic spend sooner than was previously forecast. The IMF (June 2021) predicts 6.0% world growth in Real GDP in 2021 following the 3.3% decline in 2020.

Based on the top 13 ad markets, Q2 remains the crucial point of recovery at 21% growth in ad spend, reflecting the severe impact of lockdowns on ad spend during this period last year, with the second half of the year predicted to deliver 10.1% growth. The recovery is set to continue into 2022, when ad spend is predicted to grow 7.2% to reach US$680 billion.

All forecasts continue to be dependent on a number of factors and are subject to change. All historical advertising spend figures have been revised to May 2021 average exchange rates. Page 22 provides detailed information regarding the assumptions and methodology that underpin our forecasts.