With an increased demand for online shopping, and as people naturally became savvier in their new ways of purchasing – Countdown set out ambitious targets for their SEM contributions to online margin.

This, among other internal challenges, meant we needed to innovate to outperform.

We needed to capture new consumer behaviour to match the stretch revenue goals for Countdown.


We created a certainty model that used propensity to allow us to predict customer shopping behaviour with confidence, be it in-store or online.

The model used both Countdown and Google footfall data, as well as online revenue data to accurately predict an optimum bid strategy that uncovered the most valuable customers in real time.

Cross-referencing Countdown sales data from lockdown and Q4 2020, we identified in-demand products, and matched in-store supply levels to serve accurate information to those searching for products near them.

This gave customers certainty based on their location, intent, and in-store stock levels, ensuring their experience would be as pain free and safe as possible.


Despite increased competition and challenging business dynamics, our Certainty Engine Marketing approach was a resounding success, registering increases in revenue, return on ad spend (ROAS) and traffic to site.

We also helped grow the in-store revenue share driven by search, out performing the search budget by 10X, proving the value of certainty.